Sunday, March 13, 2016

695 Singapore is right in its own way. Residual Andhra Pradesh should prefer FREEDOM.

Mr. Nara Chandra Babu Naidu, the Chief Minister of Residual Andhra Pradesh, is restless, and on a begging spree. First, he started with the Head of the State of Singapore. The Singapore Govt. promised to arrange for the Master Plan of Andhra Pradesh State Capital, FREE OF CHARGE, and whether they have really charged for it or not, they were paid approx. Rs. 120 million for making it. Then they were expected to build operate and transfer the Amaravati Capital City. It seems that Singapore Govt. and their associates have gone back, because they were not sure about the economic viability of the Amaravati Project.

Mr. Chandra Babu Naidu has been going on harping the tune of "I shall get for Andhra Pradesh a World Class Capital".

On 23rd July 2015, Residual Andhra Pradesh Govt. Officials said that Ultra Modern Amaravathi will get iconic Twin Towers, with 70-80 floors each.

On 17th Oct. 2015, the Dy. Head of Mission, British High Commission, Hyderabad and head of UK Trade and Investment (UKTI), Abhilash Puzhakara, said,
"...UK is ahead of many countries and can help Indian cities, especially in Andhra Pradesh to make them smart cities using latest technology. We will be happy to transfer our technology and partner with India in various sectors of mutual interest, especially to be part of the growth of Andhra Pradesh and development of its capital Amaravati...."

Somehow, this offer of UK did not get its due attention from Mr. Chandra Babu Naidu, because he appears to have been completely infatuated by Singapore, at that time.

On 24th Oct. 2015, on the occasion of the Foundation Stone Laying Ceremony of the Capital City, in the presence of Mr. Narendra Modi, the Prime Minister of India, Mr. S. Iswaran, representing the Singapore PM, said that Singapore minister S. Iswaran said they are preparing to submit a bid for the project.

Six months have elapsed, since then. Singapore seems to have lost interest in building Capital City for Residual Andhra Pradesh.

Mr. Chandra Babu Naidu might not have anticipated that Singapore would go back. May be to supplement the Capital available to the Singapore Govt. and its associate, and to make the Tender process (Swiss Challenge or by whatever name it is called) appear transparent, and to show that due process has been followed, Mr. Chandra Babu Naidu seems to have contacted countries like Japan, South Korea, China for help. Probably, reasons for their getting cooled down from the initial enthusiasm, may be the same as the reasons found by Singapore.

Now, in March 2016, Mr. Chandra Babu Naidu went to England, with a begging bowl, and an obedient, ever-ready to serve you face.

We should be grateful to the for publishing the news item titled "UK may partner AP capital" , "Singapore sceptical of promised returns, Britain gives CM new hope", in the DC dated 12th March 2016. This is found only in print Edition. I am unable to give any link to its Electronic Edition. Some important quotes from this report:-

A.P. Chief Minister, Mr. Chandra Babu Naidu, has assured Singapore that once the Capital City was constructed, the cost of land in Amaravati would increase dramatically to about Rs. 20,000/- per sq.ft.

However, the Singapore Govt. told the CM that its calculations showed that the cost of land in Amaravati would only be able to reach a maximum of Rs. 9,000/- per sq.ft., and that such poor returns could not match their investments.

The CM sas said that if Singapore did not get Rs. 20,000 per sq.ft., then the State Govt. would pay the remainder amount i.e. Rs. 11,000/- per sq.ft.

Sources close to the CM said that despite the assurance, Singapore was not convinced and that CM was now having his own doubts about the deal.

"...(A Senior Official) He said that the British High Commission in India had drafted a tender to choose the consultant for planning investment strategies to draw in international firms to the AP Capital Region. ..."

ybrao-a-donkey's humble comments. वैबीराव एक गधे के विनम्र राय . వైబీరావ్ గాడిద వినమ్ర వాణి. You have every right to differ with me. I respect your right. आपको मेरे मत से भिन्न राय रखने के संपूर्ण हक है। मै उस अधिकार को परिपूर्ण रूप से गौरव देता हुँ. మీకు, మీ భిన్నమైన అభిప్రాయాన్ని కలిగిఉండే సంపూర్ణ హక్కు ఉంది. దానిని ఎంతో నేను గౌరవిస్తాను. However, pl. examine this donkey's views also. परन्तु एस गधे के दृष्टिकोण को भी अनुशीलन कीजिये. కానీ ఈ గాడిద దృష్టికోణాన్ని కూడ ఓర చూపుతో కంటజూడుమీ, క్రీగంట జూడమీ.

This promise to make the AP State Government to make good the shortfall of Rs. 11,000 per sq.ft. to the Singapore Contractor, is really atrocious. Mr. Naidu is elected for just five years. He is making a promise which will bind all the future Chief Ministers for the next 25 years.

About Real Estate prices, nobody can predict correctly. There can be so many imponderables.

Singapore might have based its calculations, with the help of standing forecasting methods, world, Asian and Indian Historic data, standard methods followed by Mathematical Quantitative Techniques, aided by Computer algorithms, projecting different scenarios and different rates of rents and prices. The best mathematical calculations, can and will work in astronomy, stellar Physics, space dynamics etc. But they may go haywire in respect of real estate prices, commodity prices, share and bond prices etc. etc. which are dictated and influenced by hunches of investors, rather than reasoning.

IN spite of stiff competition prevailing among global investors for good investment opportunities, and Contractors for Projects, in the context of the Current Global Recession, non-Singapore Consultants, and Experts may also employ similar Quantitative Methods and Techniques, to forecast the Rate of Return on Investment. That means like the Japanese, Chinese, South Korean investors and Contractors, UK Contractors also may not come forward for the Amaravathi Work, unless there is behind some benami Indian Industrialist, investing his stashed moneylaundered funds.

There can also be other reasons for Singapore predicting low returns, which may not be reflected appropriately in Project calculations: 1. Nearly 25% of the pooled land has to be given back to farmers. 2. Roads, parks, other public spaces take away another 25%. 3. Govt. may want to reserve some plots to its cronies such as Media, NGOs, political parties, Consulates, etc. etc. These complimentaries may take away another 15%. After deducting this 60%, 40% land or less will remain.

Less land means, a higher price will have to be fixed. For this reason, Singapore is expecting minimum Rs. 20,000/- per sq.ft.

Other factors: 1. Bribes to be paid at every level of the Govt. Machinery. This will increase the project costs phenomenally.

2. Govt. under pressure from various Groups such as farmers, industrialists and business persons, bureaucrats, may change the layouts and alignments. Even rules may be changed.

3. Remote location of Amaravati Seed Capital from the National Highway from Vijayawada, Guntur and Mangalagiri. Location of the A.P. Capital on the Guntur Vijayawada Road itself, or on the Vijayawada-Gannavaram Road, or on the Vijayawada-Kanchikacharla Road, might have reduced project costs, construction time, and raised the Real Estate Prices to the satisfaction of International Corporates.

4. Amaravati is Capital for 13 Districts. Out of these 13 Districts, Srikakulam, Visakha, East Godavari, Vijayanagaram are in North Andhra Pradesh. Visakhapatnam is developing as a focal and Smart City there. Visakha is a competitor to Amaravati. Sri City in Chittoor Dt., near Chennai is also attracting its own investments. Both Visakha, and Sri City have lower land costs when compared to Amaravati. Besides, they have the readymade infrastructure of Airports etc.

5. Amaravati may be earthquake prone, flood-prone, when compared to Visakha and Shri City.

If these factors are also taken into account, Singapore's conservatism in estimating Rental / Sale Price predictions for Real Estate of Amaravati seems to be understandable. But Mr. Chandra Babu Naidu may not be ready to understand it.

If Mr. Chandra Babu Naidu goes back, his own Ministerial colleagues, MLAs, former MLAs, MPs etc. will get annoyed, because many of them have purchased lands in Capital Region in benami names. This may be the reason for Mr. Chandra Babu Naidu's unwillingness to order a probe by a Sitting Judge or by CBI. He will prefer to threaten Mr. Jagan mohan Reddy to prove his allegations or that the Govt. will initiate action against him.

Now, there are reports that HUDCO has agreed to sanction a loan of Rs. 7,350 crore to A.P. Government, for Capital.

A.P. Government, seems to be finally settling for domestic sources.

SUGGESTION given earlier, again repeating

Not too late. The entire Capital project can be cancelled. The entire land, with the exception of 45 acres on which construction is going on for the Temporary Secretariat, can be given back to the original farmers who pooled their lands, with due apologies and a small bonus ex gracia. They will also be happy, because their lands were POOLED forcibly, threatening ACQUISITON. The returned farm lands are very fertile. They will go back to their multi-crops.

Nagarjuna University may be shifted to the New Building which is being constructed at Velagapudi, on the 45 acres land. AP's Temporary Secretariat, can be located in Nagarjuna University. High Court can be given to Tirupati. Assembly and Council can be shifted to Rajahmundry. Visakhapatnam can be given the Railway Zone. Kurnool and Anantapur can become Headquarters to some important State Level Directorates.

Gradually, three or four cities can be developed by building infrastructure needed for Capital Cities, in Rayala Seema, North Andhra, and South Andhra.

Cancellation of the Capital Project, will teach a lesson to all the Speculators who purchased lands in Capital Area with black money or by diverting bank loans. Next time, they will think twice before embarking upon such ghastly adventures.

Of course, Mr. Chandra Babu Naidu will not get credit, and a permanent place in the history of Andhra Pradesh, as the Architect of nayA-Singapore in Amaravati. But he will save a fertile area from becominga slum, and Krishna River from becoming a dirty cesspool. Drinking Water shortages at Prakasham Barrage can be prevented. Even if Amarvati develops as a Great City of Great skyscrapers, people will not be really happy, because the State Capital will be in the grips of foreigners. What truly independent people should love, is FREEDOM and not Cities full of restrictions.

Subject to substantial Revision, additions and deletions. To continue and revise this, with more proof.. सशेष. సశేషం.

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